Disarming Rogues: Deterring First-Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction

The United States and its allies invaded Iraq in 2003 with the declared intention of removing Saddam Hussein’s regime. Although it was determined after the war that Iraq did not possess weapons of mass destruction (WMD), removing a regime believed to be in possession of WMD raises the possibility that the post-9/11 US security policy is more willing than previously believed to tolerate the risk of precipitating a WMD exchange. In future crises, policymakers may conclude the risk of WMD use during a preemptive attack or disarming strike is lower than the risk of a terrorist attack utilizing such weapons. This article will examine the potential for intra-conflict deterrence when a state confronts an enemy that possesses WMD—most likely chemical weapons (CW) or biological weapons (BW). It will contend that, despite creating an increased risk of a WMD attack, the invading state can take steps to reduce the likelihood of being met by a WMD response. It begins by exploring the relevant literature on deterrence and intra-war negotiation in an effort to develop a framework for deterrence while at the same time restraining conflict below a desired threshold. The case study of the 1991 Persian Gulf War is then analyzed in an attempt to draw lessons on whether, and if possible how, intra-conflict deterrence might work and implications for developing a theoretical understanding of likely deterrence scenarios. Finally, the article will consider lessons applicable to future conflict capable of lowering the likelihood of the use of such weapons. The 2006 National Security Strategy of the United States (NSS)— reiterating what was first enunciated in the 2002 NSS—declares that the